PickScope
NBA props · Monte Carlo · Fair odds
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PickScope runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on any NBA player prop and tells you the hit rate, fair odds, and exactly why.

LeBron James

LAL @ GSW · Points

OVER 24.5
67%
Fair odds-203
Median27.4 pts
VolatilityMedium
10 ptsLine: 24.545 pts
LeBronO24.5 pts67% hit rate
LukaO31.5 pts58% hit rate
JokicO12.5 reb71% hit rate
GiannisO28.5 pts62% hit rate
SGAO29.5 pts63% hit rate
CurryO4.5 ast55% hit rate
TatumO26.5 pts69% hit rate
ADO14.5 reb48% hit rate
EmbiidO32.5 pts52% hit rate
KDO28.5 pts61% hit rate
LeBronO24.5 pts67% hit rate
LukaO31.5 pts58% hit rate
JokicO12.5 reb71% hit rate
GiannisO28.5 pts62% hit rate
SGAO29.5 pts63% hit rate
CurryO4.5 ast55% hit rate
TatumO26.5 pts69% hit rate
ADO14.5 reb48% hit rate
EmbiidO32.5 pts52% hit rate
KDO28.5 pts61% hit rate
BamO10.5 reb64% hit rate
Ja MorantO24.5 pts59% hit rate
WembanyamaO22.5 pts54% hit rate
DonovanO25.5 pts57% hit rate
BrunsonO27.5 pts66% hit rate
FoxO6.5 ast51% hit rate
TownsO22.5 pts60% hit rate
HaliburtonO9.5 ast72% hit rate
MitchellO26.5 pts56% hit rate
BookerO28.5 pts65% hit rate
BamO10.5 reb64% hit rate
Ja MorantO24.5 pts59% hit rate
WembanyamaO22.5 pts54% hit rate
DonovanO25.5 pts57% hit rate
BrunsonO27.5 pts66% hit rate
FoxO6.5 ast51% hit rate
TownsO22.5 pts60% hit rate
HaliburtonO9.5 ast72% hit rate
MitchellO26.5 pts56% hit rate
BookerO28.5 pts65% hit rate

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Simulations per run

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NBA teams covered

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Prop types available

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Auto-refreshed picks

Features

Builtfordisciplinedbettors

Every simulation is grounded in real game logs and adjusted for context. No black boxes.

▶

10,000 Monte Carlo
Simulations

We run 10,000 simulated game outcomes using real NBA historical performance data — not gut feelings or generic models.

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Context-Aware

Opponent defense, back-to-back fatigue, teammate availability — all shift the projection in real time.

Back-to-back
Key teammate out
Favorable matchup
Home game
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Fair Odds

Market-115
Model fair odds-203
Model edge+8.3%

Model estimate — not a guarantee of true probability.

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Full Distribution

Every percentile, volatility label, and histogram of all 10,000 outcomes.

25th
18.2
50th
26.1
75th
33.4
90th
39.8

Smart Picks

Simulation-ranked picks refreshed daily

LIVE
AJokicO12.5 reb71%
BSGAO29.5 pts63%
BHaliburtonO9.5 ast58%
CWembyO22.5 pts54%
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No Vig Pricing

See what the line should cost without the book's margin baked in.

How it works

Fromlinetoanalysisinseconds

01

Pick a game & player

Select any upcoming NBA game and search for any player.

02

Set your prop

Enter the line (e.g. over 27.5 points) and adjust context toggles.

03

Run the simulation

10,000 outcomes computed in seconds using real historical data.

04

Read the results

Hit rate, fair odds, full distribution, and a plain-English breakdown of what drives the projection.

Pricing

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  • Distribution chart
  • Bankroll tracker
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  • 50k trial simulations
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